Coal Market Report

Friday, 26 January 2018
 
Daily Coal Indices
Product Week TD Daily % Ch Month TD Daily % Ch Best Index Bid Best Index Offer
NEWC 107.420.02 %106.460.01 %107.75107.40
DES ARA 96.08-0.05 %96.53-0.01 %98.0093.75
RB 98.560.01 %98.650.00 %98.5098.50
INDO 4200 44.980.00 %44.980.00 %44.0050.00

Market Overview
While the coal market continues to strengthen in Asia we saw prices in the Atlantic basin resume their downward trajectory today. The financial market had a typically quiet end to the week although the divergence between API#2 and NEWC continues to widen with the Cal'19 spread now getting towards -$5/mt territory. The physical market was equally lacklustre with little positive news to report. Elsewhere, European gas and oil markets softened with the benchmark front-month Brent contract ticking off around $0.15 sit at $70.30/bbl near close of play.

From the Asian Desk
As the week drew to a close, it was much the same story as the rest of the week, there were markets across the curve in both fixed and index markets, with bid/offers spreads gradually narrowing during the session, but unlike yesterday, no trades materialised. In the Physical NEWC market Feb18 and Apr18 continued to see the majority of action on the last day of the Jan18 index. Feb18 was bid at $107.75/mt in 25kt and offered at $113.25/mt in the same size, while at the back of the index window, Apr18 was bid at $107.00/mt in 25kt and offered $0.40/mt higher in 50kt ND. In the index linked market, Q218 was best bid at +$2.95/mt, but no offer was posted against after yesterday's flurry of activity. In the Phys INDO 4200 GAR market, a mid-Feb18 loading shipment remained bid at $48.50/mt on a FOB G&G basis, but the nearest offer pulled back to $50.00/mt, both in 50kt. The vessel queue at PWCS currently stands at 10, while the turnaround time is at 3.2 days.

From the Met Desk
The week ended with the best bid levels unchanged from the start of the week but the offers falling away amidst falling prices across the wider premium hard coking coal markets. The closest Feb Unbranded HCCA market reached $208.0/$226.0 on Tuesday, with offers then staying away despite the Feb Branded bid level remaining at $208.0 and the March Branded HCCA bid at $201.0 on screen again today.

globalCOAL Thermal Coal Trades this Week
  Product Expiry Price Volume Origin Delivery Point Add.Terms
23/Jan/2018Phys NEWC Index (FOB Newcastle)Q4'18$ 2.00150,000  ND 
24/Jan/2018Phys NEWC (FOB Newcastle)Apr'18$ 107.2525,000   
24/Jan/2018Phys RB1Feb'18$ 99.0050,000   
24/Jan/2018Phys RB1Feb'18$ 98.5050,000   
25/Jan/2018Phys NEWC Index (FOB Newcastle)Q2'18$ 3.8575,000   
25/Jan/2018Phys NEWC Index (FOB Newcastle)Q2'18$ 3.6575,000   
25/Jan/2018Phys NEWC Index (FOB Newcastle)Q2'18$ 3.6575,000   

globalCOAL Metallurgical Coal Trades this Week
  Product Expiry Price Volume Add.Terms
No Trade

Recent Coal Indices
Weekly 29 Dec 05 Jan 12 Jan 19 Jan 26 Jan
NEWC103.88105.25106.27106.88107.42
DES ARA97.2196.6996.3796.9896.08
RB 94.4297.79100.1298.1498.56
INDO 420044.9844.9844.9844.9844.98
globalCOAL Indices: Last 3 months (US$)
   NEWC    DES ARA  RB 
Monthly Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18
NEWC97.3397.1196.64100.81106.46
DES ARA90.4490.8093.2395.7096.53
RB91.9090.3291.5395.7098.65
INDO 420044.0844.9844.9844.9844.98
globalCOAL Weekly Indices: Last 12 Months
   NEWC    DES ARA  RB 

Coal Forward Prices
Representing best bids / best offers on the globalCOAL Platform Between 00:00 and 18:00 Local London Time
 
  Phys NEWC Phys NEWC Index Phys DES ARA Phys API#2 Index
  Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid
Feb'18107.75113.25110.50   97.0094.2595.63   
Mar'18      98.0093.7595.880.50--
Apr'18107.00107.40107.20         
Q2'18105.50120.00112.752.95--      
Q3'18100.00--2.302.852.58      
Q4'1895.00--2.002.502.25   0.75--
Q1'19   1.502.752.13      
 
  Phys RB Phys RB Index PHYS API#4 INDEX  
  Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid
Feb'1898.50115.50107.00         
Mar'1898.0098.5098.25   -0.25-   
Apr'18      -0.35-   
Jun'18      -0.25-   
Q2'18      -0.500.15-0.17   
Q3'18   -0.50--0.500.25-0.13   
Q4'18      -0.200.500.15   
2019      0.60--   
 
  Phys RB2 5700 Phys RB Index (RB2 5700) Phys API4# Index (RB2 5700)  
  Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid
Mar'18      --2.00-   
Q2'18      --2.25-   
Q3'18      --2.25-   
 
  Phys RB3 5500 Phys RB Index
(RB3 5500)
Phys API#4 Index
(RB3 5500)
 
  Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid
Mar'18      -9.00-5.00-7.00   
 
  Phys HA AUS 5500 Phys API#5 5500
(HA AUS)
Phys FOB INDO 4200  
  Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid
Feb'18      -50.00-   
 
  Phys HCCA Branded Div (FOB Aus) Phys HCCA Branded ND (FOB Aus) Phys HCCA (FOB Aus)  
  Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid
Feb'18   208.00--      
Mar'18   201.00--      

globalCOAL 6000 Physical Curves: Fixed Price
 
  Phys NEWC Phys ARA (DES) Phys RB
Jan'18108.5095.2597.80
Feb'18109.4593.4098.60
Mar'18109.1593.0098.25
Apr'18109.2092.7098.00
Q1'18109.0593.9098.20
Q2'18107.1592.4597.05
Q3'18102.2591.3595.50
Q4'1899.1090.9094.45
Cal-18104.4092.1596.30
Cal-1994.9588.9592.65
6000 Physical Curves: Fixed Price
   Phys NEWC  Phys ARA (DES)  Phys RB1
 Previous day 

globalCOAL 6000 Physical Curves: Index-Linked
 
  Phys NEWC Index Phys API#2 Index (DES) Phys gC RB Index
Jan'182.050.000.20
Feb'181.001.000.25
Mar'182.001.15-0.25
Apr'181.751.50-0.10
Q1'181.700.700.10
Q2'183.501.400.00
Q3'182.501.350.20
Q4'182.201.300.40
Cal-182.501.200.20
Cal-192.001.401.00
6000 Physical Curves: Index-Linked
   Phys NEWC Index  Phys API2# Index (DES)  Phys gC RB Index
 Previous day 

gC NEWC Futures Curve
 
  Bid Offer Mid Change
Jan'18106.20106.70106.45-0.05
Feb'18108.20108.70108.450.95
Mar'18106.90107.40107.150.90
Apr'18107.20107.70107.451.40
Q1'18107.10107.60107.350.60
Q2'18103.40103.90103.650.20
Q3'1899.50100.0099.750.40
Q4'1896.6597.1596.900.25
CAL-18101.65102.15101.900.35
CAL-1992.7093.2092.950.95
gC NEWC Futures Curve (Mid-Point)
 Previous day 

globalCOAL 5500 Physical Curves: Fixed Price
 
  Phys HA Aus Phys CFR Kemen/Liuheng
Jan'1886.0095.00
Feb'1885.5093.00
Mar'1884.0092.00
Apr'1883.0092.00
Q1'1885.1593.35
Q2'1881.2590.50
5500 Physical Curves: Fixed Price
     Phys HA Aus  Phys CFR Kemen/Liuheng
 Previous day 


globalCOAL 5500 Physical Curves: Index-Linked
 
  Phys NEWC Index (HA Aus) Phys API#5 Index (HA Aus)
Jan'18-12.603.50
Feb'18-14.203.50
Mar'18-14.453.00
Apr'18-15.502.75
Q1'18-13.803.30
Q2'18-14.752.25
5500 Physical Curves: Index-Linked
   Phys NEWC Index (HA Aus)  Phys API#5 Index (HA Aus)
 Previous day 


globalCOAL 4200 Physical Curves: Fixed Price
 
  Phys INDO 4200
Jan'1850.00
Feb'1849.50
Mar'1848.00
Apr'1846.00
Q1'1849.15
Q2'1846.00
4200 Physical Curves: Fixed Price
     Phys INDO 4200
 Previous day 

globalCOAL Met Coal Curves: Fixed Price
 
  Phys HCCA Phys HCCA Branded
Jan'18205.00210.00
Feb'18205.00210.00
Mar'18205.00210.00
Apr'18205.00210.00
Met Coal Curves: Fixed Price
     Phys HCCA  Phys HCCA Branded
 Previous day 


Freight Forward Prices
 
  RB - Rott Bol - Rott C5
  Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid Bid Offer Mid
Jan 188.709.309.009.9010.4010.155.506.005.75
Feb 188.609.108.858.909.409.156.306.706.50
Mar 188.809.209.009.309.709.506.507.006.75
Q1 188.609.108.859.259.759.506.006.306.15
Q2 188.709.108.909.209.709.457.207.707.45
Q3 189.009.509.259.6010.109.857.508.007.75
Q4 189.6010.109.8510.3010.7010.507.808.208.00
Cal 189.009.409.209.6010.059.827.207.707.45
Cal 198.208.708.459.409.909.657.307.807.55
Source: SSY (Capesize Coal FFA Market Prices)

PWCS Vessel Queue
  Ships Off Port Av. Queue Days
17 Jan112.30
18 Jan142.30
19 Jan172.30
22 Jan103.00
23 Jan53.30
24 Jan103.00
25 Jan63.30
26 Jan103.20
Ships Waiting Off Port at PWCS
 
Source: HVCCC

Energy Market Data
  Unit Price US$ / GJ Equiv US$ / MMBtu US$ / MWh Equiv
DES ARA (1)US$ / mt96.083.824.0413.78
RB (1) + PM Freight RB-Rott (2)US$ / mt107.564.284.5215.42
NBP Gas - Front Month (3)p / th49.146.616.9823.81
TTF Gas PM (3)EUR / MWh17.852.402.538.65
ICE Gas Oil PM (3)US$ / mt628.5014.6215.0451.32
ICE Brent PM (3)US$ /barrel70.4611.5112.1541.46
UK Baseload Power PM (3) GBP / MWh49.2719.4320.5169.96
German Baseload Power PM (3)EUR / MWh39.4213.6914.4449.28
EUA Spot (3)EUR / t9.06
View sources and notes

UK Clean Power Spread Prices
   UK Clean Dark Spread  UK Clean Spark Spread
 
View methodology

ICE Futures Oil and Gas Daily Settlement Prices PM
   PM NBP Gas Futures (p / th)    PM Brent Futures (US$ / barrel)

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